Macro Landscape: Fed Rate Pause and Risk Aversion Favor ETH

The uncertain outlook for the US economy is driving capital into digital assets. President Donald Trump's hawkish rhetoric and his push to raise tariffs on key partners such as Japan, the EU, and Mexico are increasing fears of a recession. Meanwhile, sticky inflation pressures are restraining the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates, keeping borrowing costs high and prompting investors to hedge through crypto assets like Ethereum.

Today’s US CPI data (due at 14:30 GMT+2) is expected to show a rise from 0.1% to 0.3% month-over-month, and from 2.4% to 2.6% annually. Core inflation is projected to follow a similar path. If confirmed, the Fed may maintain rates in the 4.25–4.50% range, despite political pressure to ease policy.

Institutional Adoption Driving ETH Demand

Ethereum's technical and legal developments are also fueling institutional interest. In late May, the US SEC clarified that staking on Proof-of-Stake (PoS) networks like Ethereum does not constitute a securities transaction. This ruling sparked a surge in institutional ETH accumulation.

Over the past 30 days, entities acquired ~545,000 ETH worth roughly $1.6 billion. The largest holder is SharpLink Gaming Inc., with 255,000 ETH. With institutions treating ETH as a treasury-grade staking asset, demand continues to rise alongside ETF flows.

Technical Analysis: ETH Breaks Out of Bear Channel

ETH/USD has decisively exited its long-term descending channel, moving above the key resistance at $2,968.75 (Murray [7/8]). The next resistance targets lie at $3,281.25 and $3,437.50.

Ethereum PriceEthereum breaks out above $3,080 resistance

Key support is found at $2,656.25, aligned with the midline of the Bollinger Bands. A break below this level could reintroduce bearish pressure and bring the pair back toward $2,187.50 and $1,875.00.

Technical Indicators: Bollinger Bands are trending upward, MACD remains strong in the positive zone, and Stochastic is flat in overbought territory—implying limited but possible correction risk.

Trading Scenarios

  • Primary: BUY STOP above $3,045.00, targeting $3,281.25 and $3,437.50, with Stop Loss at $2,890.00. Timeframe: 5–7 days.
  • Alternative: BUY LIMIT at $2,656.25, targeting $3,281.25 and $3,437.50, with Stop Loss at $2,500.00.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

  • Resistance: $3,281.25, $3,437.50
  • Support: $2,656.25, $2,187.50, $1,875.00